Continue reading »]]> 150pm Update

Good afternoon everybody,

Y’all remember over the last 2 days I have been saying this new cold front later tonight is bothering me.  I said this morning it is bothering me in a good way.  I have some changes to the forecast so I decided just to go ahead and do it now.  Details for later tonight into Thursday are given below.

Rest of Today (No Changes) - No real weather problems the rest of today and we have mentioned this many times already.  The atmosphere is much warmer now and despite all the moisture around our airmass can hold it quite easily.  Look for much milder temps and dry conditions.   The GFS model still thinks it’s going to snow 4 inches this afternoon but it is clueless right now.

Late Tonight into Thursday  (Updated 150pm) – This morning I produced a good babbling about tonight into Thursday morning and right  now I’m even more worried.  Upstream radars in Montana and the pacific NW are pretty impressive as this 175mph jet moves into the region.  This same jet will be down here late tonight into Thursday morning with a strong cold front and vorticity.  You may not know it right now because there is no precip falling but our atmosphere is loaded with juice.  It will remain loaded all night with over 3G/Kg of specific humidity which is substantial!!   Once this vorticity and cold front start to lift the atmosphere late tonight into Thursday morning I strongly believe it will snow.  As a matter of fact, I think it will snow more than my 3 to 5″ at the resorts.  I’m going to up my amounts on the 6 day snow forecast a little bit more based on the strong parameters I see right now.

By Thursday afternoon I also believe that scattered snow showers will be around that could add a touch more so Thursday is shaping up better and better.

As a side note I have a good idea where to go Thursday morning if you have off.  The answer is Highlands Bowl.  The reason why is we have a 40 to 50kt mid-level flow from the NW.  When this wind direction happens, Highlands Bowl gets the BLOW IN EFFECT.  The BLOW IN EFFECT is where the bowl gets accumulating falling snow plus snow blowing into the bowl.  I’m thinking about 5 to 7″ at the resorts for accumulations but the BLOW IN EFFECT could make it feel like 10 or 11 up there.  Just thought y’all might be interested in that!!!

Friday (No Changes) - The glaring message for Friday is strong subsidence or sinking air over Aspen and vicinity.  It will be dry and mostly sunny.

Cory

Continue reading »]]> 150pm Update

Rest of Today  (Updated 150pm)- Variable mid/high clouds and milder is the flavor of the day.  High 43.      Snow getting started late tonight as the new cold front nears.  Low only  26.

Thursday (Updated 150pm) - Snow in the early to mid morning…Scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Colder.   High 27.   Low 1.  Dress warmly if you are skiing because it will be nippy up there!!  There will be accumulations with this event late tonight into Thursday!!!!!

Friday (No Changes) - Dry and mostly sunny.  High 33.  Low 8.

Extended Forecast:  (No Changes)…… Big problems in the extended period concerning timing and the eventual strength of the next trough.  The European will probably be right as the american models look too fast and too weak.  I’m going to keep a chance for snow in Saturday night into Sunday.

Saturday -  Dry during the day.  Chance for snow developing at night..  High 44.  Low 23.

Sunday -  Chance of snow and colder.  High 28.  Low 6.

Monday –  Chance of snow or snow showers.  Forecast difficult as the models cannot resolve the pacific effectively this far out.  High 34.  Low 13.

Cory