Aspen Weather
Winter Forecast- Revisited (12/13/11)
I have been trying to delay this moment for a while but I cant wait any longer. So let’s get a few things out-of-the-way first before we get to the amended forecast. There is no doubt this is a La Nina winter as temperatures over the equatorial Pacific are 1.1C below normal right now. When the equatorial Pacific is colder than normal, it tends to reduce thunderstorms along the equator and through a bunch of complicated stuff this changes the weather pattern in the northern hemisphere. On a statistical basis, La Nina winters are usually good for us and very good from Vail northward to Jackson Hole and Big Sky. This winter its going to be a moderate La Nina like last winter. If you look at the cases for Moderate to strong La Ninas around here the evidence is good for snowy conditions. The epic winter of 2007-2008 was a strong La Nina and last year we had great snow and it was a moderate La Nina.
Concerning this winter- There is a strong correlation that when you have 2 La Nina winters back to back, the second one is almost always drier than the first one. That would mean that this winter is supposed to be drier than last winter. I whole-heartedly agree with this scenario and my snowfall forecast this year was less than last winter by far. With that being said I still forecasted about 10 to 15% above normal snow at the resorts. Let me say it again, this years numbers are lower than last years forecast so I was going with the trend of a good winter but less snow than last year.
So whats going to happen the rest of this winter – Here’s is the scary part. About 2 out of every 13 moderate to strong La Nina winters in Aspen are bad. When I say bad I mean real bad with less than 95 inches in town and well under 300 inches at the resorts. The pattern right now is acting so weird with all the storms passing west and south of us, I’m praying that this winter is not one of those really bad ones!!!!!!!! So here is what I’m going to do. We started strong in November at the resorts then things fell off rapidly after November 15th and have not returned to normal at all!!!! We are well behind the pace right now and are going to fall off even more because the rest of this month looks very dry. So at this point I believe I have to go from 10 to 15% above normal at the resorts to about 10% below normal.
With that in mind this would put our resort totals somewhere near these numbers –
Snowmass: 295″
Highlands – 288″
AJAX – 270″
I hope I dont have to downgrade anymore. These numbers are still solid and all we need is a good January and everybody is happy and peppy again. I’m staying positive because it really cant get much worse than this December. This month may go down as one of the driest Decembers ever in Aspen!!
Cory
17 comments
Dave says:
October 24, 2011 at 7:52 pm (UTC 0 )
Wow, nice complete forecast! That does it. I am buying some full reverse camber boards!
aspenweather says:
December 14, 2011 at 12:42 am (UTC 0 )
Check out the updated. Winter forecast !!
Vinny says:
December 1, 2011 at 11:48 am (UTC 0 )
Son of a gun, this is so hlefpul!
Nancy says:
December 1, 2011 at 10:14 pm (UTC 0 )
Would love to see an update of your Winter forecast now that we’re in December and the La Nina is a little more in place? thanks!
aspenweather says:
December 1, 2011 at 10:27 pm (UTC 0 )
Good afternoon N,
I would not change a thing as far as that forecast is concerned. Right now Nancy the La Nina is very well defined out in the equatorial Pacific. The ensembles are actually hinting at very La NInaish conditions next week and beyond and I personally
believe the month of December will be energetic. It kind of starts this weekend with a decent resort snowfall and the models are extremely consistent on action later next week and beyond. I believe we wont have another huge dry spell like we just experienced again for quite a while.
Hope that helps and maybe I will give everybody a heads up soon on the Winter Outlook
Cory
aspenweather says:
December 14, 2011 at 12:43 am (UTC 0 )
Check out the new updated winter outlook!
Nancy says:
December 2, 2011 at 12:08 am (UTC 0 )
Cory – thanks for the update! Some fresh powder would be great to get those moguls ready for our mogul program http://www.bumpsforboomers.com. I hope you are right!
cheers…great website. Love the detail and the localized forecast.
aspenweather says:
December 14, 2011 at 12:45 am (UTC 0 )
Check out the new winter outlook!! Updated as of 12/13
Gail says:
December 8, 2011 at 4:51 pm (UTC 0 )
A week later…still no measurable snow…still feeling the above normal snow vibes?
aspenweather says:
December 8, 2011 at 5:32 pm (UTC 0 )
Hi Gail,
Thank goodness the resorts got 6 inches over last weekend. To tell you the truth I’m getting more nervous as a whole for the rest of the winter. I’m not ready to call it off and go below normal snow because I have seen how fast things can change. I will give you a quick example…During the epic winter of 2007-2008 is was flat out dry in the early stages for 42 out of 50 days. October was dry and virtually the entire month of November it was sunny. Then the change came and it snowed 27 out of 31 days in December and about the same in January. Of course I am not saying this will happen in our case this year but when we have a La Nina like what we are in right now its difficult to throw in the towel because of the statistical evidence of decent winters. I will tell you this….There are a couple cases thrown in there during which we had a good La Nina winter and conditions were very dry. Its about One out of every 13. Thats what scares me a little as could this be that one!! I hope not!!
Cory
Rosamond Betzig says:
December 9, 2011 at 12:04 pm (UTC 0 )
This is very fascinating, You are a very skilled blogger. I have joined your rss feed and stay up for seeking more of your great post. Also, I have shared your web site in my social networks!
pozycjonowanie says:
December 14, 2011 at 12:14 am (UTC 0 )
Thankyou for helping out, great info .
Luis says:
December 15, 2011 at 7:45 pm (UTC 0 )
Great forecast! Anyway we can get something like this down valley? I guess we can always get a decent idea of the weather here in Glenwood based on what happens in Aspen; although I’ve seen some mayor differences once in a while. Gracias amigos!
Houston DWI lawyer says:
February 12, 2012 at 11:45 pm (UTC 0 )
Howdy! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site with us so I came to check it out. I’m definitely enjoying the information. I’m bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Fantastic blog and brilliant design.
ÿþb says:
February 13, 2012 at 3:39 pm (UTC 0 )
Do you people have a fb fan page? I regarded for one on twitter but could not uncover one, I would really like to grow to be a fan!
Michal Valseca says:
February 15, 2012 at 3:34 pm (UTC 0 )
I like what you guys are up also. Such smart work and reporting! Carry on the excellent works guys I have incorporated you guys to my blogroll. I think it will improve the value of my web site
.
quotes on lost love says:
February 18, 2012 at 8:09 am (UTC 0 )
Hello There. I found your blog using msn. This is an extremely well written article. I will be sure to bookmark it and return to read more of Aspen Weather Forecast » Aspen Weather . Thanks for the post. I will certainly return.